In response to the current global economic situation, Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, believes that global economic growth in 2019 faces more uncertainties and needs to be particularly vigilant against the risk of reform of the international trading system, various political risks, the risk of high debt and the risk of violent market volatility.
Domestic manufacturing investment gradually picked up, growing by 9.5% in 2018, showing strong resilience, with a large contribution from the upstream manufacturing industry and slower growth in mid- and downstream manufacturing investment, falling to 4.6% in the first quarter of 2019. In this regard, Lianping believes that "manufacturing investment began to fall significantly at the end of last year. 60% to 70% of manufacturing investment is private investment, and private investment will be more cautious when the economy is down. But if exports remain stable growth, the overall policy framework is basically unchanged, consumption is running smoothly, especially in terms of investment growth rate has continued to pick up, manufacturing investment may bottom out."
He said that under the policy support of reducing the tax rate of key manufacturing industries, increasing the proportion of R&D expenses plus deduction, and building a strong manufacturing country, the growth rate of investment in high-tech manufacturing, high-end equipment manufacturing, and new energy and new materials manufacturing will accelerate. And export improvement, investment rebound and steady growth of consumption may pull the manufacturing investment after the second quarter stabilization rebound.
"The overall reduction of the deposit reserve ratio may bring the impact of overexpansion, but there is still some demand for structural reduction." He pointed out that for some small and medium-sized commercial banks, there is a need to further reduce their reserve ratio appropriately, because these banks are the main force to serve small and micro, strengthen the support for small and micro enterprises, reduce the financing costs of small and micro enterprises, need to be supported by financial institutions.